Risk management

Last summer I read a book on risk management. (I can't find it right now...it's in a box.) The basic premise was that people don't have a clue how to manage risk. The example that's always given is cars vs airplanes. Some people have a fear of flying, and they manage what they perceive to be a risk by not taking an airplane, and driving everywhere instead. Of course, statistics show that driving is many many more times dangerous than flying.

A more subtle form of this problem is in the area public health. Many people find no time to exercise or eat properly, yet complain about getting sick or feeling tired all the time. Or they don't complain, but remain unhealthy, or choose to view their lack of health as "unfortunate" or in serious, extreme cases "a tragedy." Whatever the reason, whether it is fear, or laziness, it comes down to poor risk management.

Malcolm Gladwell's "Blink" is also an interesting book. It suggests that we can sometimes make better decisions if we don't think too long, and just trust our instincts. This is probably true for some things. But it seems to me that a better general rule is to think first. Michael R. LeGault wrote a book called "Think" as a response to Gladwell. There are some weaknesses in that book, as in Gladwell's, but the problem is not a question of Blink OR Think as a solution to all problems, it is a question of when to blink and when to think. Most poor risk management is simply a wrong answer to that question, and more often than not, a blink reaction is more wrong than a think reaction.

The best advice I have ever received from my dad (who was not necessarily one for advice) was "think slowly." If you think slowly, gather all the available information, then act, then you can avoid the risks you need to avoid, but you can also take the risks that are beneficial to take.